11/05/2024

IFI traça cenários com novo auxílio emergencial e prevê crescimento de 3% do PIB em 2021

3 anos ago

De acordo com relatório divulgado nesta segunda (22) pela Instituição Fiscal Independente, o crescimento do PIB este ano não deverá ser suficiente para repor a queda verificada em 2020

O custo das medidas de enfrentamento à covid-19, incluindo os efeitos de uma nova rodada do auxílio emergencial sobre as contas públicas, e os mecanismos para seu encaixe no Orçamento foram destacados pelo diretor-executivo da Instituição Fiscal Independente (IFI), Felipe Salto, nesta segunda-feira (22), durante apresentação à imprensa do Relatório de Acompanhamento Fiscal (RAF) de fevereiro de 2021. De acordo com a análise, o crescimento do produto interno bruto (PIB) este ano deverá ser de 3%.

Já os gastos para mitigar os efeitos da pandemia de covid-19 deverão ultrapassar R$ 64 bilhões, sendo mais da metade destinados a um eventual novo auxílio emergencial — ainda não há aprovação do benefício nem definição de seu valor, mas o documento desenha simulações do impacto nas contas do governo.

O cenário considerado mais provável para o novo auxílio emergencial aponta um custo de R$ 34,2 bilhões, considerando pagamento de quatro parcelas de benefício de R$ 250 para 45 milhões de brasileiros — já incluídos os 19,2 milhões de inscritos no Bolsa Família.

Ainda considerando um auxílio de R$ 250, um cenário com seis parcelas mensais alcançando 50 milhões de beneficiários, custaria R$ 58,7 bilhões. Um cenário considerado otimista do ponto de vista estritamente fiscal abrangeria, em quatro meses, um número menor de beneficiários, a depender da legislação que criará o auxílio e os requisitos para entrada no novo programa.

— O governo, hoje, já tem um maior controle a respeito destes dados em razão da experiência do ano passado e provavelmente deverá conseguir uma maior capacidade de previsão desse gasto para 2021 — ressaltou Felipe Salto.

A PEC emergencial (PEC 186/2019), com votação prevista para quinta-feira (25) no Senado, é interpretada como meio de viabilizar a nova rodada de auxílio emergencial sem risco de ultrapassar os limites das metas fiscais e do teto de gastos. Porém, Salto avalia que o texto em análise é bastante complexo e a emenda à Constituição não resolverá todos os problemas sem um programa de ajuste fiscal de médio e longo prazo. Da mesma forma, a Comissão Mista de Orçamento (CMO) terá que discutir compensações fiscais no Projeto de Lei Orçamentária Anual (Ploa) para bancar o auxílio, ou o governo terá que apelar a crédito extraordinário.

PIB

De acordo com os especialistas da IFI, o produto interno bruto (PIB) deve manter a tendência de crescimento neste ano: o resultado projetado para 2021 deve chegar a 3%. O índice compensa em parte o quadro recessivo verificado em 2020, quando o PIB caiu cerca de 4,5% — os números oficiais ainda não foram divulgados.

Por sua vez, a dívida pública, que fechou 2020 em patamar abaixo do esperado, cresceu muito e continuará em tendência de alta, não devendo atingir uma estabilização em relação ao PIB até 2030. O risco de rompimento do teto de gastos segue preocupante, mas, no entendimento dos especialistas, desceu de “alto” para “moderado”.

Revisão extraordinária

Órgão do Senado criado para ampliar a transparência das contas públicas, a Instituição Fiscal Independente, a IFI publica mensalmente seu Relatório de Acompanhamento Fiscal. O documento de fevereiro antecipou extraordinariamente a revisão do semestre anterior, que só seria feita em maio, motivada pela continuidade da pandemia e de seus efeitos.

— Em razão de toda essa incerteza e instabilidade, resolvemos divulgar em fevereiro um novo quadro de projeções — explicou Salto.

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